Depending on which definition for recession you use, the U.S. is either in one or appears to be heading into one, with slow growth expected into next year.
According to Eric Crawford, ACT Research’s Vice President, Senior Analyst, supply-chain disruptions continue to moderate, and he expects a modest 2023 recession centered on the first quarter next year, "with a more material freight downturn having already started in Q2’22 and beginning to contract year-over-year in Q4’22.”
While freight rates and volumes are indeed measurably off their pandemic highs, that's not dampened an "unprecedented level of demand for commercial trucks," said Jonathan Randall, Mack Trucks senior vice president. "No one is calling to cancel trucks. The call is, "I'm going to take 75 [trucks], and please can you get me another 50. I need them desperately."
Randall spoke to journalists as part Mack Trucks drive event in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, Wednesday.
North American Class 8 truck orders are expected to close the year around 300,000 units, and Randall said he expects a stronger year next year, even amid widespread economic uncertainty, driven mostly by fleets seeking to renew their fleet.
"A commercial truck pullback will not be a 1:1 relationship [with a broader scope pullback of the U.S. economy]," he said, noting strong replacement demand for trucks would continue to bring fleets to the dealership.
