Are we heading into the best recession ever? ACT Research’s Steve Tam says it’s all in the way you look at it.
During an economic update presentation Monday at the Truck Renting and Leasing Association (TRALA) Annual Meeting in Bonita Springs, Fla., Tam and Wells Fargo’s Sarah Moore discussed the possibility of a slowdown coming for the economy in 2023 and how to evaluate it against other recent recessions.
Moore says Wells Fargo is predicting a very mild recession beginning in the third quarter and lasting into first quarter of 2024. Tam says ACT’s forecast indicates a slowdown happening sooner, likely beginning this quarter, with the economy picking up again in the final months of the year. He says ACT is now predicting very slight growth for the year overall, an improvement over its forecasts released last year.
Whether the year ultimately goes down as a recession won’t be known until later, Tam says, though it is clear the economy has corrected from the insane post-COVID peak of 2021 and 2022.
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He says that’s why business feels so soft right now despite truck orders and freight rates remaining historically high. “We are comparing everything to the pinnacle of market performance.”
