Truck and trailer manufacturers are desperately trying to increase production rates but are struggling to overcome a myriad of obstacles, according to ACT Research.
Truck and trailer builds are hampered by raw material and labor shortages that have dragged on since the U.S. began crawling towards a post-pandemic economic recovery. Commercial vehicle demand, medium-duty, heavy-duty and trailer backlogs are essentially filled into 2022, according to ACT, with backlog-to-build ratios well above traditional ranges and inventories below traditional thresholds.
“Material and component supplies, as well as staffing issues, continue to generate headwinds for U.S. trailer OEMs,” said Frank Maly, director of CV Transportation analysis and research at ACT Research. Some indications are that staffing challenges may be easing slightly, he added, and that the upcoming end of supplemental unemployment benefits could further improve workforce availability. "That said, pricing and availability of components and materials are resulting in higher trailer prices and a build-up of red-tag units, with the volume of these units expected to continue growing during the upcoming months.”
Maly said concerns over future availability and pricing are major factors in the trailer OEMs' unwillingness to accept future orders, which is causing uncertainty about the timing of the "official" opening of the 2022 orders. "In turn, meaningful pent-up demand is occurring due to the reluctance to accept dry van and reefer orders at this time, with the average industry backlog-to-build ratio extending to the end of Q1’22, at June 2021 build rates," he said. “How coordinated the timing of that opening by the OEMs is a second major question. While order volumes have remained low, there is no question that negotiations have continued. Once orders are again accepted, expect a flood that could consume a significant portion of the remaining 2022 production slots.”
The unknown, Maly said, is how quickly OEMs will be able to ramp production, which will correspondingly impact their pace of order acceptance. "We already have orderboards that extend into Q2’22 on average," he said. "For reference, remember the order surge that occurred in late 2018, which immediately pushed commitments through Q3 of the next year. A similar pattern could well be in the offing. Of course, pricing, which is still under development, will also have a major impact on that order pace.”
July net U.S. trailer orders of 8,128 units fell nearly 26% from the previous month, according to ACT, and were almost 58% lower compared to July 2020. Before accounting for cancellations, new orders of 9,500 units were down more than 27% versus June, and 53% lower than the previous July.
