Despite the concern found in the general economy, there wasn’t much talk of the ‘R’ word during FTR Chairman and CEO Eric Starks’ economic industry update at the opening general session of the National Trailer Dealers Association (NTDA) Convention Thursday in Colorado Springs.
Starks opened his presentation by polling the audience and asking how many trailer dealer attendees felt the economy was already in a Capital R recession. He guessed only 5 to 10 percent of attendees raised their hand, but he said their assessment wasn’t without merit. United States’ GDP has fallen in consecutive quarters and Q3 is unlikely to set many records. He said the GDP numbers like that would indicate a recession is here — or close.
But after the events of 2020 and 2021, Starks said analysts can’t really evaluate the economy the same way they did in 2019. The COVID shutdown and restart in 2020 led to many structural economic changes. The U.S. (and global) economy is still finding its way forward in post-pandemic environment.
Business might not feel as great today as it did 12 months ago, but that doesn’t mean a recession is underway. And even if one does arrive in 2023, Starks said FTR data indicates the trailer market should still be healthy in the months and years to come.
FTR's North American trailer forecast, presented by Eric Starks at Thursday's NTDA Convention opening general session.
In kicking off his presentation Thursday, Starks said FTR has not heard anyone in the trailer and truck sectors announce they have changed their budget for capital investment for 2023, and with truck orders hitting all-time record last month and trailer backlogs remaining above historical norms, it appears equipment demand remains ahead of available supply.
