Not enough trucks. Not enough trailers. Not enough drivers.
That's trucking in 2021 – or at least a widely held perception of it.
Surging freight spurred by ongoing pandemic recovery coupled with stagnating capacity has added to the notion that there's an ongoing driver shortage, yet FTR Vice President of Trucking Avery Vise noted that in terms of sheer driver population, "we probably have more than we did before the pandemic" based on the recovery of headcount in payroll employment along with a surge in new for-hire carriers dating back to July 2020.
Aaron Terrazas, director of economic research at digital freight network Convoy, said he also doesn't subscribe to the idea that there is a chronic undersupply of drivers, because almost all relevant labor and payroll data suggests "trucking industry employment across the board is close to, or right at, or slightly above, pre-pandemic levels."
Terrazas conceded that some fleets may be feeling a labor force strain, but that is more an effect of excess freight than a shortage of drivers, and that "at some point, demand is going to come back down, and depending on how far it comes back down, supply could be well in line with those needs a year, two years down the line."
Similarly, J.B. Hunt Senior Vice President Corporate Safety, Security and Driver Personnel Greer Woodruff said the driver issue always comes down relative to supply and demand, and that it's always seeking equilibrium. "As long as there's demand that's outpacing supply then there's an associated cost to the supply chain," he said. "I happen to believe we have plenty of drivers. We don't use them very well."
There are currently 6.8 million commercial drivers – 4.9 million of which are CDL holders – driving intrastate and interstate commerce. Since mid-2020, the number of new for-hire trucking companies (grants of motor property carrier authority) each month has nearly tripled, according to FTR, but that's not done much to chip into the available freight supply.
